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Prediction for CME (2023-06-06T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-06T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25472/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a dimming region visible in SDO AIA 193 near N12E60 starting around 2023-06-06T03:00Z. Field line movement is visible off the E/NE limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 03:20Z, with post eruptive brightening visible in SDO AIA 131 and 304 starting around 04:00Z. Finally, post-eruptive arcades are visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 07:24Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-09T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25476/1
Model Inputs:
2023-06-06T03:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-63.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=617.0, HalfAngle=44.0, Time21.5=2023-06-06T10:34Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-06-09T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-09T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230606_103400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 74.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-06-06T12:54Z

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